I came across an article in the Electronic Engineering Times, which is an electronics industry newspaper published in the USA with several decades of history. The title of the article is Seven Early Predictions for Electronics in 2010 by Mark LaPedus. The seven predictions come from various analysts in different segments and touch on the topics of semiconductors, silicon foundry, PC/PC OMD'S, cell phones, LCD equipment, FAB equipment, and solar. I will only touch on the predictions for semiconductors, PC/PC OMD'S, and LCD equipment. For more detailed information about this article, please visit www.eetimes.com.
Semiconductors
The prediction on the growth and revenue of semiconductors is provided by Susie Inouye, an analyst at Databeans Inc. Inouye explains that semiconductors grew worldwide, even when it went down 10 percent from 2008, but up 20 percent sequentially. “This puts the market on target with our current prediction of $217 billion, a contraction of 13 percent from 2008,” said Inouye. For the wireless sector, it is predicted that after some seasonal inactivity, the segment will continue to be strong. “Overall wireless baseband and RF revenue is expected to remain fairly flat at $6.2 billion followed be sequential growth in the first and second quarter of 2010 at $6.7 billion then $7.3 billion, respectively,'' says Inouye. She also predicts that for 2010, the PC segment market is expected to be down 14 percent followed by a 16 percent increase in 2010 as demand increases for computing devices.
PC/PC OMD'S
Steven Pelayo, an analyst with HSBC, believes that there is lots of optimism for Windows 7. Overall, 2010 notebook market is to grow 20 percent with Quanta forecasted to grow twice as fast. In terms of branded PCs, ''very strong 3Q shipments (prebuild for W7/Golden Week) are expected. Selling longer battery life with CULV base notebooks not as successful as originally hoped. Most looking for 30 percent growth in 2010 focusing on emerging markets,'' said Pelayo.
LCD Equipment
According to Charles Annis, an analyst for DisplaySearch, “While 2008 marked a record year in TFT LCD equipment spending, the combination of the worldwide economic crisis and the downside of the 'crystal cycle' are causing the equipment segment to suffer its largest drop ever in 2009.” However, LCD equipment is predicted to forecast about 51% growth in 2010. Annie explains that the industry is moving into a 'wait and see' mode, cautiously planning long lead time capacity expansions, evaluating whether the global economy and LCD demand are back on a growth curve and if China will be able to meet continuously increasing expectations,"
The predictions of these analysts was helpful in understanding the market trends in the electronics industry. Although, the world faced an economic downturn recently, it is good to hear that there is still prospect in the industry. I also think the predictions for 2010 can be made possible if engineers chose models that are accurate enough, but not too accurate, in order to save cost. In class, we discussed what makes a good model in engineering and how the choices engineers make are considered economic. However, the decisions engineers make also depends on how they are performing in comparison to their competitors. If a company is not gaining a competitive advantage, perhaps it might be wise to invest a little more for an expansive model that contains less error. Overall, in order for these predictions to take place, I think engineers just need to understand the overall cost when when designing a project and the cost of the tools that they used. Such understanding will the growth in the Electronics industry.
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